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TODAY’S IDEA: Little bets, big breakthroughs
— From Little Bets: How Breakthrough Ideas Emerge From Small Discoveries by Peter Sims
Amazon and Google, two of the biggest companies of our time, as well other successful enterprises (regardless of size), all have one thing in common: they embrace an experimental discovery mentality. They don’t know which ideas will be a big hit and which ones won’t, so they allow themselves to experiment and “learn and uncover opportunities as they go.”
Jeff Bezos, Founder of Amazon, often compares his company’s strategy of “developing ideas in new markets to ‘planting seeds’ or ‘going down blind alleys.’ […] Many efforts tend to be dead ends… but every once in a while, you go down an alley and it opens up to into this huge, broad avenue.”
In today’s business environment, long gone are the elaborate business plans in favor of lean and agile ones. The focus is on action, and this means actually “do[ing] things to discover what [companies/people] should do.” Little bets, then, are “concrete actions taken to discover, test and develop ideas that are achievable and affordable. […] The important thing to remember is that while prodigies are exceptionally rare, anyone can use little bets to unlock creative ideas.”
“Most successful entrepreneurs don’t begin with brilliant ideas—they discover them.”
Two advantages of the little bets approach are that:
- It lets us focus on what we can afford to loose, versus projecting or assuming the gains (this is called the affordable loss principle); and
- It makes us aware of the means we have and those we will need as the idea moves along.
The affordable loss principle involves failure. However, it doesn’t focus on failure as a negative and dead end, but as a means to an experiment. It’s the “error” part in trial-and-error. We’re not intentionally trying to fail; yet “in almost any attempt to create, failure, and often a good deal of it, is to be expected.”
With this in mind, trying out little bets as experimentation on new ideas and projects works. Why? Because we “will make important discoveries by being willing to be imperfect, especially at the initial stages of developing [our] ideas.” And as we move forward, iterating from the feedback we obtain, we will be able to build up to breakthroughs.
ACTION
TODAY: Take the time to figure out which one idea or project you have going on where you could put little bets to the test. Then decide which little bet you can start working on and what little means you need to make it happen.
FUTURE: Embrace the experimental discovery mentality in all you do, both professionally and personally. Include little bets so as to turn an initial idea or project into a great one by means of experimenting, iterating, refining and pivoting if necessary. Remember to move forward imperfectly. By doing this, you’ll be able to discover your best, breakthrough ideas and succeed with them.
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